IMPROVING THE RELIABILITY OF ENERGY-EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT FOR COMBINED-CYCLE CHP PLANTS BASED ON AN IMPROVED ENERGY BASELINE CALCULATION METHOD

Abstract

The article considers the problem of evidence-based determination of the energy effect of operating and organizational-technical measures at combined heat and power plants with combined-cycle units. It is shown that direct comparison of specific fuel consumption before and after a measure does not reliably separate real savings from the influence of outdoor air temperature, changes in electric and heat load, transient operating modes, and equipment technical condition. The aim of the study is to develop a normalized energy baseline suitable for assessing the actual performance of a unit under comparable operating conditions. The methodology is based on the calculation of total standard fuel consumption, a multivariable regression model, robust filtering of abnormal intervals and the construction of prediction confidence intervals. The model includes electricity and heat output, ambient temperature, indicators of the operating configuration, and an equipment-health index. Computational validation demonstrated a reduction in root mean square error from 2.8 to 1.4%, a decrease in systematic bias to +0.1%, and the ability to identify fuel savings of about 2-3 g of standard fuel per kWh. The proposed approach makes it possible to use the energy baseline as a tool for continuous monitoring, selection of optimal load schedules, and verification of energy-saving measures.