THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL WARS ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS: MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

Abstract

In the context of contemporary globalization and interdependence, the impact of international political wars, geopolitical conflicts, and economic sanctions on the world economy has become unprecedentedly relevant. The main purpose of this article is to conduct an econometric and macroeconomic analysis of the impact of real geopolitical events in 2024–2026, in particular military clashes in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, logistical crises in the Red Sea, and trade wars between major powers on international economic relations. During the study, the effects of political shocks on global inflation, energy resource prices, and supply chains were assessed using the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models. The results showed that the rise in geopolitical tensions increased global logistics costs by an average of 150-200 percent, slowed global economic growth rates by 0.8-1.2 percentage points, and accelerated geoeconomic fragmentation. The study concludes with strategic proposals to mitigate global economic risks and ensure macroeconomic stability for open economies such as Uzbekistan.